North Korea gave hope late last year that the six-party talks - which have been stalled since it unilaterally withdrew from the forum in April 2009 in protest tightening of UN sanctions following an intercontinental ballistic missile test - could resume this year. However, the latest announcement from Pyongyang appears to scupper this.
The North initially reacted with anger to the new sanctions: their moth-balled Yongbyon nuclear reactor was restarted, South Korean workers were expelled from the Kaesong industrial complex and the nascent cross-border train service was suspended. Pyonyang has, until now, adopted a more conciliatory tone, presumably as the harsher sanctions have begun to take effect.
North Korea Links End of Sanctions to a Return to the Negotiating Table
North Korea is refusing to return to the negotiating table at the stalled six-party talks, claiming that the continuation of sanctions places them in an unfair position vis-à-vis the other five members of the round table group. The six-party talks, which began in 2003 as a mechanism to ensure that North Korea abandons its nuclear arsenal and thus ensure the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula, are hosted by China and include South Korea, Japan, Russia and the United States.
When Stephen Bosworth, the US special envoy for North Korea returned from Pyongyang in December it was with the belief that the North had agreed in principle to a 'no-strings attached' return to the talks. President Obama, whose letter Mr. Bosworth delivered to Kim Jong-il, made it abundantly clear that the North will not be rewarded for simply agreeing to start talking. Taking this last point into account it is difficult to see what Pyongyang hopes to gain from this latest act of defiance.
Are There Signs of a Warming of Inter-Korean Relations?
Relations between North Korea and its southern neighbour have soured dramatically since President Lee Myung-bak took office in 2008 and called a halt to his predecessor's 'Sunshine Policy' which provided unconditional aid to the North, effectively rewarding it for continued bad behaviour. North Korea's long-range missile and nuclear tests in early 2009 further exacerbated the situation and direct criticism from Seoul led Pyongyang to unilaterally suspend all dialogue.
There have been signs in recent weeks that the North is beginning to adopt a more open stance, work has restarted at the Kaesong industrial complex and talks have begun with a view to expanding the project in the future. Additionally, the North has agreed to let South Korea resume tourist trips, which have been suspended since a South Korean tourist was shot after straying into a prohibited area in Kamchung in July 2008.
North Korea Accepts South Korea's Offer of Food Aid
Perhaps most importantly, North Korea has also agreed to accept a small amount of food aid from its neighbour for the first time since President Lee took office. The amount of ten thousand tons is largely a symbolic gesture and will do little to ease the suffering which North Korean citizens are currently experiencing following yet another poor harvest, but along with other actions it does suggest that Pyongyang is keen to improve relations with Seoul and finally engage with the Lee government.
Total grain production was estimated at around 4.3 million tonnes for 2009, which is almost one million tons short of the amount North Korea needs to feed its entire population subsistence rations. The increased sanctions are hitting the country hard because this habitual shortfall has been made up in recent years by food aid donations from South Korea, Japan and the United States, but these and other donors have been reluctant come forward in the current climate, for fear of being seen to be rewarding North Korea's continuing bad behaviour.
Only time will tell whether North Korea will return to the six-party talks this year, and, if it does, whether it will have been from a change in posture when it sees that these latest demands have not been met, or whether it will have bowed to pressure from its sole ally China to press ahead with the diplomatic route.
References
